加强和改善建筑施工技术管理刍议

当前,建筑行业内现有企业之间的竞争本就十分激烈,作为贯穿于整个工程项目过程中的建筑施工技术管理,其管理水平也日渐成为企业的核心竞争力。作为技术管理活动在工作场地的一个外延,它在建设建立技术工作秩序、工作程序和责任制,在保证项目施工质量和安全,提高施工效率等方面都有着不可替代的作用。虽然建筑工程管理水平随着行业发展而不断提高,但在实际执行中仍难免存在着各式各样的问题。因此,进一步提高建筑施工技术的管理水平,将对企业实现效益最大化起到重要的作用。     

重庆市农业生产性服务供给路径优化研究

［目的］改革开放以来，随着经济社会的发展我国农业总产值不断提高，农业生产的物质投入日益增加并接近饱和，然而，农业生产效率未见显著提升，农产品竞争力不足。在此背景下，文章以生产性服务融入农业生产可以有效提升重庆市农业劳动生产率为逻辑起点，研究农业生产性服务提升重庆市农业劳动生产率的有效路径。［方法］利用投入产出表数据，在分析2002年以来重庆市农业生产性服务的投入水平和趋势的基础上，利用中间投入率等指标着重分析重庆市农业生产性服务投入的来源（供给）和去向结构性的变化，探寻重庆市农业生产性服务供给水平和内部结构的短板所在。［结果］重庆市农业生产性服务的总体投入水平偏低，传统服务仍占主导地位，现代要素的投入不足，政府组织的作用有所弱化，农业的销售类服务需求激增，对种植业的投入是短板。［结论］通过提高政府责任、创新农业经营体制、整合农业全产业链生产性服务供给、三产融合发展、培育新型服务主体可以优化重庆市农业生产性服务供给，有效提升重庆市农业生产性服务发展。     

TACKLING FALSE POSITIVES IN BUSINESS RESEARCH: A STATISTICAL TOOLBOX WITH APPLICATIONS

Serious concerns have been raised that false positive findings are widespread in empirical research in business disciplines. This is largely because researchers almost exclusively adopt the ‘p‐value less than 0.05’ criterion for statistical significance; and they are often not fully aware of large‐sample biases which can potentially mislead their research outcomes. This paper proposes that a statistical toolbox (rather than a single hammer) be used in empirical research, which offers researchers a range of statistical instruments, including a range of alternatives to the p‐value criterion such as the Bayesian methods, optimal significance level, sample size selection, equivalence testing and exploratory data analyses. It is found that the positive results obtained under the p‐value criterion cannot stand, when the toolbox is applied to three notable studies in finance.     

Tortoise,not the hare: Digital transformation of supply chain business processes

With the rapid development of digital technologies, many supply chain professionals are wondering how to move forward. Three technologies are poised to change supply chain business processes: robotic process automation (RPA), artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) and blockchain. Based on interviews with supply chain professionals in 14 large, mature manufacturing and service organizations, we outline the promise of each technology and forecast their broad-scale adoption potential. Organizations should take the following measures to ensure their readiness to adopt and effectively use one or more of these technologies: (1) identify a supply chain technology visionary who can lead through the maze of technologies and the changing digital landscape, (2) develop a digital technology roadmap for their supply chain processes, and (3) update foundational information systems.     

乡村振兴背景下黔东南州农村物流发展水平评价

农村物流作为联系农村和城市的纽带，在加快城乡资源要素流动、促进农村经济增长和实施乡村振兴战略中发挥着重要作用。运用数理统计方法，从农村经济发展水平、政策支持、运输基础设施、物流货物运输能力、农村市场规模5方面分析黔东南州农村物流发展水平。最后对黔东南州农村物流发展提出对策建议。     

Robust Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation for the Nested Error Linear Regression Model

Standard model‐based small area estimates perform poorly in presence of outliers. Sinha & Rao ( 2009 ) developed robust frequentist predictors of small area means. In this article, we present a robust Bayesian method to handle outliers in unit‐level data by extending the nested error regression model. We consider a finite mixture of normal distributions for the unit‐level error to model outliers and produce noninformative Bayes predictors of small area means. Our modelling approach generalises that of Datta & Ghosh ( 1991 ) under the normality assumption. Application of our method to a data set which is suspected to contain an outlier confirms this suspicion, correctly identifies the suspected outlier and produces robust predictors and posterior standard deviations of the small area means. Evaluation of several procedures including the M‐quantile method of Chambers & Tzavidis ( 2006 ) via simulations shows that our proposed method is as good as other procedures in terms of bias, variability and coverage probability of confidence and credible intervals when there are no outliers. In the presence of outliers, while our method and Sinha–Rao method perform similarly, they improve over the other methods. This superior performance of our procedure shows its dual (Bayes and frequentist) dominance, which should make it attractive to all practitioners, Bayesians and frequentists, of small area estimation.     

Exporting firms and retail internationalization: Evidence from France

This paper questions the impact of the globalization of the retail sector on the export activity of origin country agri‐food firms. We use an original firm‐level database of French agri‐food exports that identifies the domestic suppliers of French retailers through certification with the private International Featured Standard (IFS). The results show that IFS certified French firms are more likely to export and export larger volumes than noncertified firms to markets where French retailers have established outlets. We also show that when French retailers stop their activities in a market, certified firms reduce their exports to this market in the following years. The results are robust to the use of different sets of firm‐year‐ and country‐year‐specific controls and fixed effects, and are not affected by possible selection and endogeneity biases. The difference in the behavior of certified and noncertified exporting firms on markets where French retailers operate confirms the network effect that benefits retailers’ suppliers, which is lost when French retailers exit from the destination country.     

Sourcing for the base of the pyramid: Constructing supply chains to address voids in subsistence markets

Substantial work has described downstream distribution systems for subsistence markets, but little is known about how upstream supply chains support these efforts. We suggest that a multinational corporation (MNC) entering these markets must resolve the institutional voids in product, labor, and capital markets, as well as address issues of regulatory ambiguities and the lack of contracting mechanisms that exist at the raw material, manufacturing, distribution, and marketing stages of the supply chain. We analyze the nature of these voids and their challenges, map them onto the value chain, discuss their interconnections, and suggest that they do not impact all firms equally. We provide examples from the food, beverage, and textile industries of how four firms have addressed institutional voids in constructing their supply chains. We conclude by providing implications, both across the value chain and regarding the trade-offs of partnering with non-profit agencies. Our analysis highlights the importance of going beyond the broad impact of the institutional environment to understanding its more nuanced and multi-faceted effect on supply chains.     

物流服务水平与物流成本的权衡探讨

确定收入、物流成本和物流服务水平之间的相互关系,建立三者之间定量的数学模型,进行物流服务水平与物流成本的权衡,使企业能做出最优物流服务水平的决策。     

“暂停”战术在男子高水平乒乓球比赛中的作用

暂停作为技战术的一部分,暂停时机运用在乒乓球比赛中的作用还是很重要的,如果教练员或者运动员在比赛中能很好的运用比赛暂停的时机,对运动员的比赛胜负还是有很大的影响。本文通过运用文献资料法、数理统计法、逻辑分析法对暂停在比赛中运用时机对比赛结果影响的分析,可以看出在男子高水平的乒乓球比赛中合理运用暂停时机对比赛结果有很大的影响。